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Bargain-Hunting in Gold?

You're forgiven for being frustrated. Gold simply refuses to drop back...

THIS CHART
has frustrated lots of bargain hunters in the gold market, writes Brian Hunt in Steve Sjuggerud's Daily Wealth. It shows the past year's trading in gold.

Gold is one of the world's most volatile assets. It is impossible to accurately value. You can't say "I'll pay 10 times earnings" for gold like you would with a stock. You can't say "I'll pay eight times annual rent" like you would with a property. Gold tends to trade on wild swings in investor fear.

That's why many seasoned investors expected gold to endure a substantial correction after its massive 2009 rally...or after its similar rally this year. They expected to add to their gold holdings well off the short-term high...at short-term bargain prices.

But as you can see from this chart, there's no gold bargains to be had this year. Gold is not suffering natural sell-offs after rallies. Instead, small price declines now trigger huge buying interest from Asia, the Middle East, and giant institutional investors...folks who want to diversify assets out of paper and into "real money".

For those people looking to buy gold, we here at Daily Wealth say don't worry much about the current price... just keep accumulating ounces.

Buy gold at your price, live online, using the ultra-secure, low-cost BullionVault service...

Speculating In Gold…?

No longer under-priced, Gold Bullion is from here a speculation...

WEDNESDAY was a good day for stock market investors, writes Bill Bonner in his Daily Reckoning. Prices went up. The Dow rose 254 points, leaving us uncertain about its near-term intentions.

Of course, we're always uncertain here at The Daily Reckoning. But sometimes we're more uncertain than others. What seems certain to us is that stocks are a bad bet.

You might find this interesting, dear reader:
Guess who was better off at this stage following the beginning of the crisis. The investor in the Great Depression? Or, the investor today?
Well, we haven't done the calculation ourselves, but we've heard from two different sources that if you take inflation and re-invested dividends into account, investors during the Great Depression were actually ahead. The difference is in the dividends. In the 1930s, companies paid substantial dividends; today, they don't.

But yesterday a report came out that told investors that manufacturing activity was picking up. After so much bad news for so long, that was all they needed. They switched back to "risk on" mode.

Back and forth...to and fro...Mr. Market is making us wait. But for what?

We expect stocks to go down until they finally reach their rendezvous with the bottom. We saw one estimate that put the final bottom seven years into the future. But who knows? All we know is that it hasn't happened yet. And since we believe it must come sooner or later, we conclude that it must be ahead of us...because it is not behind us.

Since a lower low lies ahead, we see no reason to invest in stocks at all. The odds are against us. Besides, what's the hurry? The good companies will still be around seven years from now. And the bad companies? Well, we wouldn't want to invest in them anyway...

But where...how...are we going to make some money in the next seven years? That is a good question, dear reader. We're so glad you asked.

Do you have a good answer? Hope so, because we don't.

The only reliable bull market of the last ten years has been in gold. The yellow metal lost $2 yesterday, closing at $1,248. That is only $14 below its all-time high. Which means, while we've been watching Bernanke, Jackson Hole, and stocks –  gold has been quietly creeping up...
Stocks go down; stocks go up – and gold keeps moving up...

Fiscal stimulus, monetary stimulus, quantitative easing – and gold keeps moving up...

Recovery...no recovery – gold keeps moving up...

Inflation...deflation – and gold keeps moving up...
Are you beginning to see a pattern?

Yes, gold is in a bull market. It moves up on bad news. It moves up on good news. It moves up on no news at all.

And if we're right about how this period of Great Correction ends, the price of gold in dollar terms should go up much, much more.

But here's the important thing. Gold is money. You can use it to buy things. In terms of what gold will buy, it does not seem undervalued to us. Much has been written on the subject. But as near as we can tell, gold is now fairly priced.

Go ahead; buy all you want. It is a good way to maintain your wealth and protect it against the monetary and economic calamities that are doubtless coming. And if you expect to make a lot of money on it, you'll probably succeed. When the Bernanke Fed loses its grip – which it will – and when the public gets on board the gold bull market – which it will – gold speculators will probably make a lot of money.

We've been a gold bug for the last 30 years. Two thirds of that time was miserable, punishing and humiliating. Only the last 10 years have been rewarding. We expect the next 10 years to be even more rewarding.

But the reward now is different. It is speculative...not inherent. When we bought gold in '99, we were buying an undervalued asset. We were buying real money, cheap. We made our money when we bought.

Now, gold is fully priced. It is a still a good way to save money. But we cannot expect to make money by waiting for the metal to revert to the mean. It's already at the mean. Gold is now a speculation.

A warning: we still have not had the sell-off in the financial markets that we expect. The Dow has still not sunk down to 5,000. The lights are still on at banks that should have been put out of business months ago. The public still believes another "stimulus" effort might do the trick. Leading economists still believe they can manage the economy back to growth and prosperity.

We have not hit bottom yet. Far from it.

When we do, the price of gold could be substantially lower. Which is okay with us. We bought years ago. We're happy with our gold holdings and don't really care if the price drops. Heck, we'd be happy to see the price back below $1,000; we'd buy more.

But speculating on a rising Gold Price is a different thing. Most likely, speculators will be wiped out once or twice before gold hits its final top.

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A Whole Stinkin’ Mess

Yikes! The WSM nearly shakes the WEM from his TOADP...

FROM BLOOMBERG we get the bad news that “Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said inflation is likely to exceed the UK government’s upper 3% limit in coming months as higher sales taxes drive gains in consumer prices,” reports the Mogambo Guru in Tampa, Florida for The Daily Reckoning.

UK prices “rose 3.1% in July from a year earlier after climbing 3.2% in June.”

Apparently, Dr.King has to write a letter about it, probably something along the lines of:
“Dear British taxpayer,

“Our stupidity and incompetence have caused prices to rise more than 3% in a year, which means you are all doomed unless we government lowlife halfwits stop being incompetent, especially as regards monetary policy in general and creating far too much new money in particular, which we won’t. Terribly sorry, old chap.

“Respectfully yours,

“Mervyn.”
Of course, this cruel punishment of having to write a letter is harsher than the justice meted out in the USA, as New Jersey, and everybody connected with their pension disgrace, lied, hid relevant information and data, and is, according to the SEC, being charged with the fraud and corruptions of “withholding and misrepresenting pertinent information about its financial situation” so that municipal bond sales could continue.

Actually, in the UK, their consumer price index (CPI) rose at an annual rate of a scary 3.1% in July, which was only down from a slightly-scarier 3.2% rise in prices in June.

And inflation in something called the retail price index (RPI) came in at a terrifying 4.8% annual rate of increase! Yikes!

Here in the USA, according to The New York Post reporting a “recent JPMorgan Chase study” of prices at Wal-Mart showed that “the world’s largest retailer has raised prices by nearly 6% on average over the past six weeks,” and, “Prices on certain items increased by more than half,” which is an instant inflation rate of 50%, which all thinking people agree is a lot of inflation! Wow!

Now, if you are like me, then you are already calling for rough vigilante justice and/or some mindless, merciless mob rule, an obviously hysterical over-reaction when compared to saner heads saying to simply let the justice system take care of these government and Federal Reserve creeps, and they will all be found guilty and locked away in a dark and dank dungeon for the rest of their lives, and you can go to the prison on visiting day and laugh at them and make fun of them right to their snotty faces, and tell them how much you enjoy seeing them slowly rotting in prison as punishment for having caused so much suffering and misery with their greedy, self-serving arrogant treachery.

So, we all finally agreed that they would let me up from being pinned rudely to the ground if I agreed not to advocate open revolution, rebellion of any kind, mob rule, vigilante justice, or have anything to do with any extra-legal “rounding up” of any, or all, of these malfeasant monsters for any punishment, well-deserved or not.

They, in turn, were required to stipulate that this Whole Stinking Mess (WSM) was proof of how justified I was in having so little faith in a lying, moronic, rat’s nest of incestuous government thievery and lying.

So, what happened to these lying, thieving Jersey scumbags who ripped us off? According to Ian Mathias, in his essay “Another Warning Shot for Bond Investors” here at The Daily Reckoning, “the penalty for this outright fraud” is “Nothing.”

In fact:
“The State of New Jersey will pay the SEC precisely zero dollars. Not one state employee will pay a fine either, or go to jail...not even lose his job. In fact, the State didn’t even have to admit wrongdoing. ‘New Jersey agreed to settle the case without admitting or denying the SEC’s findings,’ calmly explains the SEC press release.”
About this time my fists clenched into Mogambo Fists Of Rage And Outrage (MFORAO), and I am screaming obscenities at them, and curses upon them, and exhorting the excitable gathering crowd to do the same and then converge on Washington, DC to take over the US government in some spontaneous revolutionary rebellion, whereupon everybody agrees to place me, The Fabulous Mogambo (TFM), on the Throne Of Absolute Dictatorial Power (TOADP), and thus begin the wonderful reign of the Fabulous Emperor Mogambo (FEM)!

This is where I bring back gold and Silver Bullion as the currency of the United States to fix the dollar’s value to the only tangible things that have survived 4,500 continuous years of history, explaining their required use as money as written in the Constitution of the United States, and I will be a true American hero, and everyone will love me and proudly name their children Mogambo, a proud name meaning, “The wise and handsome one, and hung like a horse” instead of meaning, you know, other stuff not as complimentary.

After doing that, I would probably have lunch, and maybe a nice nap. Then, when I got up, I would eliminate, at a stroke, all barriers to real entrepreneurial free-market capitalism that don’t address actual criminal frauds and corruptions, setting us on the road, at last, to Utopia.

The closest I can come to providing a parallel is in the movie It’s a Wonderful Life when Jimmy Stewart returns to Bedford Falls after Clarence the Angel gives him his wish to have “never been born.” Jimmy discovers that the town has turned into Pottersville, where the previously sedate downtown area is now a hoppin’ and boppin’, be-boppin’ thriving community, where one finds blaring marquees advertising “Girls Girls! Girls!”, all in a fun-loving, laughing, whirling, jazz-crazed, alcohol-fueled boomtown extravaganza of “party down, dudes and dudettes!”

I will not get into criticizing Jimmy Stewart when he finds out he is not married anymore, since he had never been born, and he gets weird about it (“Mary! Mary!”), instead of saying “Yippee!” and happily heading back to the party, hopefully to run into Violet, and I will stick, instead, strictly to economics.

From a research standpoint, I had been hoping that there was something in the official records of Pottersville that would indicate the conditions of the local economy under the wise stewardship of Mr. Potter lending money for capital equipment to satisfy real demand, instead of the previously lackluster economy of crumbling Bedford Falls, where the Savings and Loan was apparently so broke that they had all Sam’s money in Joe’s house, and Sam said to Joe, “What are you doing with my money in your house, you moron?” and Joe said, “Who you calling a moron, you ugly little snot?” and there was a big fight, all of which was later completely edited out of the movie, which explains why not many people know about this ugly part of the story.

The point is that the people affected by my wholesale slicing of the government payrolls and paring of the list of Pottersville government parasites would be employed as new-hires by new private businesses, new industries springing up as solid, demand-led growth, and hired as part of a brave new economic tomorrow of zero inflation, higher quality goods and services with lower prices, thus raising the standard of living for everyone, which is the gift of the free market. Whee!

Well, it turns out that official records of Pottersville are, mysteriously, missing, and there is constant denial at all levels of government, where most of their “official government policy” is summarized as, “It was only a movie, you nitwit! They made it all up! There is no Pottersville, and there never was! What in the hell is wrong with you that you keep calling us up and asking this stupid question all the time?”

So, it looks like the truth will never be known, so my advice is to keep buying gold, silver and oil until it all gets sorted out, one way or the other. By that I mean, of course, that one way is to end badly, and the other way is to end very badly.

Except if you are buying gold, silver and oil today, because then it will all end happily for you, and you will say to your son Mogambo Junior, “Whee! That investing stuff was easy.

Buy Gold and silver at BullionVault today...

Billionaires Shifting Into Gold

Capital Gold Group is a BBB Accredited Business. Listeners are welcome to receive a free precious metals guide by going to or call 1(800)510-9594. If you’d like to listen to the rest of the show, visit StartWithGold.com to subscribe to the podcast. Today’s Talking Points – Hedge fund of George Soros decreased its US stock investments from $8.8 billion to $5.1 billion between…

Depression-Era Fun in the Stock Market

What Tokyo's stock bulls know about this "rare" buying signal...

AT THE START of this week, stocks on the Dow Jones, Tokyo Nikkei and FTSE100 in London offered a bigger dividend-yield than you'd earn in interest from their local government bonds.

"That's pretty rare, and in general has been quite a good indicator of turning points in the markets," notes the Financial Times' investment editor James Mackintosh. But it only looks rare if you ignore most of history. And it's only screamed "Buy!" once on Wall Street, back in winter/spring 2009.

Yes, this "signal" worked, notching up a 100% strike-rate for the last fifty years. But buying stocks today because their yield (only just) beats bonds might prove ill-timed if not a disaster.

For at least 75 years prior to the late-1950s, US stocks consistently paid more than 10-year Treasurys. Rather than being an eight-decade-long buy signal, however, "That was the relationship ordained by Heaven," as the late Peter Bernstein learnt from his senior partners on Wall Street.

"Because stocks were riskier than bonds and should have the higher yield."

On a monthly basis in fact (pace Robert Shiller's data), US equity yields offered investors 1.78 percentage points above Treasury yields between 1871 and 1957, with this "div-yield premium" rising from a long-term average of 1.30% to 3.02% as the Great Depression morphed into WWII and equities got riskier still.

Only twice did equity yields fall below bond yields – first in March-May 1872 and then again in July-Sept. 1929. That anomaly first marked the start of a five-year bear market, and then of the Great Crash itself. Here was a sell signal even Ken Fisher could see.

  Stock Prices*
Change from
Previous Turn
Div-Yield Premium
Over T-Bonds
May 1872
5.18
  -0.10%
June 1877 2.73
-47%
4.57%
June 1881
6.58
+141%
0.74%
Aug 1896
3.81
-42%
1.33%
Sept 1906
10.03 +163%
0.22%
Nov 1907
6.25
-38%
3.15%
Dec 1909 10.30
+65%
0.37%
Aug 1921
6.45
-37% 2.76%
Sept 1929
31.30
+385%
-0.39%
June 1932
4.77
-85%
10.31%
Feb 1934
11.32
+137%
0.81%

* Robert Shiller's continuous S&P series from Irrational Exuberance (Wiley, 1996)

No, it wasn't infallible. Like the inverted yield curve forecasting recessions, near-zero Div-Yield Premiums forecast three bear markets that failed to show (Jan. 1890, mid-1899 and spring 1905). And picking the peak in Div-Yield Premiums was a tough buy signal to follow, as the variance in our fourth column shows.

But for 60 years, every significant top and bottom in US stocks was indeed marked by a relative extreme in the Div-Yield premium, at least until the signal broke down – and stocks kept paying ever-more over bonds – in the Great Depression.

So what of 2010's return to pre-Buddy Holly conditions? No idea, to be honest. Not with the UK's long Bank Holiday weekend beckoning. But we might get a quick clue from asking first: Why the late-50s' switch?

The Great Depression, of course, was finally becoming faint memory, as was its record of destroying stockholders while handing deflationary gains to fixed-income bonds. Second, the idea of growth-stock investing – propounded by youngsters like Peter Bernstein himself – was starting to take hold, slowly mutating into the "cult of equity".

But a third (and more critical) change, however, was in the underlying promise of return on versus return of your money. Because where risk-capital was formerly known as "equity", government bonds were fast on their way to becoming "certificates of confiscation" as the long post-war inflation took hold. So you could even put the switch down to the slow death of that natural deflation built into the Gold Standard (or rather its step-nephew, the Gold Exchange system), starting at the very same time as US stockholders kissed goodbye to earning a premium each year above Treasury yields.

From that year – 1958 – until 1971, "There was not one year," says Texas professor Francis Gavin, "when the Dollar and gold problem was not the most pressing issue of American foreign economic policy." Because America was flooding the world with Dollars, which the world in turn kept exchanging for Gold Bullion, draining Fort Knox until Richard Nixon closed the Fed teller's window and the US finally abandoned its $35-per-ounce currency peg.

Lacking all gold-backing today, it's plain to see that the relationship between stock and bond yields was snapped in half five decades ago. And whatever snapped it is now at stake again.

So, two late-summer speculations for bargain-hungry investors:
  1. A few days or weeks won't do it. Last year's buy signal lasted five months, knocking a further 20% off stocks before they turned higher. The pre-1950s sell signal (then a near-zero or negative Div-Yield Premium) lasted three months or so.
  2. Should this modern "buy" signal fail, it could fail with style, as Tokyo bulls know only too well. Stock yields beat Japanese government bond yields four times between late 1998 and end-2007. The first three worked like a charm, but the fourth was a feint, with the Nikkei losing 52% over the next 15 months, even as JGB yields fell still further below equity's dividend yield.
That's an ugly warning, in short, from the "deflation nation" everyone fears the US is aping. But to date, as the latest US housing, jobs and GDP data show, printing money has only stalled the post-bubble deflation, not reversed it.

Stock buyers beware.

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China’s Gold: Saving, Not Spending

What jewelry-selling Western consumers have discovered about China's gold buying...

WHATEVER
the reasons for China's massive household savings rate (Western economists blame the lack of social security, so you can guess their cure), the World Gold Council's Gold Demand Trends today showed private consumers putting ever-more money into physical gold, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault.

Compared to household savings, in fact, revised forecasts here at BullionVault this morning put likely gold purchases in 2010 at the equivalent of almost 1.7% – over twice the level of five years ago.

This confounds Western analysts who foresaw substitution – from gold jewelry to consumer gadgets – as China's household wealth grew. Because gold demand, even for the kitschest gold kitten, remains an expression of saving, not spending.

That might jar with Western tastes and ideas. But it's clear in the numbers.

According to Peking professor Michael Pettis – and despite disposable income growth of perhaps 15% annually since 2000 – consumption growth in the world's No.2 (and fastest-growing) economy "is anemic" by comparison. A BIS study last month suggested it's because household earnings are falling as a proportion of national income. But either way, and in contrast with consumption spending, private Chinese gold demand has risen 26% annually by volume in the last decade, drawing a still-greater share of retained wealth as domestic Gold Prices rose near three-fold.

So where Western analysts divide "jewelry" from "investment" demand, Chinese gold buying – as in India, the world's No.1 market (for now) – cannot be so easily split. Gold's form doesn't define its purpose so tightly in China, as North American and European gold sellers have rediscovered since the financial crisis began.

Swapping gold-for-cash by ditching unwanted jewelry, the Western world's new "scrap gold" sources are simply finding in gold a value they'd forgotten was there. Stored wealth in whatever shape is still wealth. The trick, of course – and as China's fast-growing "investment products" demand now shows – lies in reducing your transaction costs both on purchase and sale.

Buying Gold today? "If there's an easier way, I've yet to find it," says one BullionVault user...

Facts about gold.

A short video explaining the history of gold….

Capital Gold Group is a BBB Accredited Business. Listeners are welcome to receive a free precious metals guide by going to or call 1(800)510-9594. If you’d like to listen to the rest of the show, visit StartWithGold.com to subscribe to the podcast….

Capital Gold Group is a BBB Accredited Business. Listeners are welcome to receive a free precious metals guide by going to or call 1(800)510-9594. If you’d like to listen to the rest of the show, visit StartWithGold.com to subscribe to the podcast. -Dollar dropped 9% since march -The changing global economic climate. How to adjust? -Stimulus package can lead to a de-valued do…

Purchase Gold At 1% Over Dealer Cost

Capital Gold Group is a BBB Accredited Business. Listeners are welcome to receive a free precious metals guide by going to or call 1(800)510-9594. If you’d like to listen to the rest of the show, visit StartWithGold.com to subscribe to the podcast. Today’s Talking Points – Is the US economy bankrupt? While supplies last purchase gold American coins at 1% over dealer cost. All…

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